‘No big drama’ is coming for the US economy, but complacency is a rising risk, ‘Big Short’ traders say – DIGIWIZ CENTRAL

‘No big drama’ is coming for the US economy, but complacency is a rising risk, ‘Big Short’ traders say

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‘Big Short’ traders told CNBC that investors are too complacent, although the economy is healthy.
Steve Eisman sees little concern over today’s economy, with consumer spending still strong.
But traders should still keep their eyes on pockets of risk, such as commercial real estate, the others said.

There is little reason to be nervous about the US economy, though investors should still keep an eye on pockets of risk, a group of “Big Short” investors said in a joint interview with CNBC.

“As long as credit quality is okay, there’s no, you know, big drama coming,” Neuberger Berman’s Steve Eisman told the outlet at a financial conference.

He was joined by traders Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Porter Collins, who together were made famous by betting against the housing market ahead of the 2008 crash.

As to today’s economy, Eisman considers it relatively healthy, essentially dismissing Wall Street’s concerns that a consumer spending drawdown guarantees a coming slowdown.

“Capital One said that they think delinquencies have peaked. Consumers still have money,” he said, adding: “Don’t worry, be happy. I mean, that’s good until it changes but as of now, it’s not changing.”

But Collins, cofounder of Seawolf Capital, countered that investors may be turning too complacent. 

“A lot of people are bullish, right? And so that’s the one thing that concerns me like, you know, no one’s really that scared,” he said. 

Commercial real estate is a clear example, said Moses, founder of Moses Ventures. Following the rapid rise of interest rates, trillions of dollars are now due to be refinanced in the next few years, which should limit market euphoria to some degree.

Some on Wall Street are nervous this could trigger a massive real estate default wave, with billions at risk.

Instead, Moses noted that investors are largely leaning on expectations that the Federal Reserve will bail the sector out. Still, markets shouldn’t be too complacent, as the commercial real estate industry has seen “fits and starts” crop up, Moses said.

In separate comments cited by Bloomberg, Eisman also waved off rising worries about US credit conditions, noting that arguments against the government deficit have been ongoing for four decades. 

Read the original article on Business Insider
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