Photo Illustration by Thomas Levinson/The Daily Beast/Getty/Reuters
Be skeptical of predictions about the outcome of the 2024 elections. I say this, because as someone who quite often is asked to make such predictions on TV or in columns like this one, I long ago came to realize there is every incentive for commentators to sound certain and very little cost to being wrong.
For the punditerati, that is a good thing, because we are wrong so frequently. But if you are actually trying to figure out what is likely to happen in next year’s elections, it can be a problem.
No doubt you are already familiar with the most popular rock-solid prognostications about the next 15 months in American politics: Donald Trump will definitely be the Republican nominee; Joe Biden will certainly head the Democratic ticket; Americans will continue not to fully appreciate all the good Biden has done; Bad news will be good news for Trump; Republicans will try to impeach Biden for having fathered Hunter; Democrats will clutch their pearls and take to their fainting couches in response to MAGA scorched earth tactics.